global economic headwinds

Sebi Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey advises Indian retail investors to remain invested for the long term, despite global economic challenges and market volatility. He highlights India's economic resilience, citing consistent growth and manageable deficits. Pandey also cautions against speculative trading and emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and informed investment decisions.

The World Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 to 6.3%, citing global economic headwinds and domestic policy uncertainties. The IMF also revised its projection downward to 6.2%. Across South Asia, growth projections have been broadly reduced, with the region expected to grow at 5.8% in 2025.

Amidst earnings uncertainty, companies grapple with a volatile trade environment. General Motors trimmed its profit outlook due to auto tariffs, while Harley-Davidson withdrew its forecast entirely. Hershey is maintaining its forecast despite tariff expenses and rising cocoa prices. Church & Dwight downgraded expectations, citing tariffs and weakening consumer demand, planning strategic adjustments to mitigate the impact.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have returned to Indian equities, injecting nearly Rs 8,500 crore last week, signaling renewed confidence in India's economic resilience. This inflow comes amidst expectations of subdued growth in the U.S. and China, while India is projected to grow at 6 per cent, attracting FPI interest in domestic consumption-led sectors.

Gold prices in India have soared, crossing Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams, fueled by strong demand ahead of Akshaya Tritiya and the wedding season. Globally, gold also hit record highs amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. While gold surged, silver prices remained relatively stable in both domestic and international markets.

India's economic growth is projected to slow to 6.3 per cent in FY2024-25 due to weak private investment and potential US tariffs, despite matching last year's expansion. Economists highlight structural issues like job creation and stagnant capital expenditure. The RBI is expected to cut rates to support growth amid concerns over business sentiment and inflation.

Elon Musk acknowledges the financial strain on Tesla due to his political involvement, reporting a significant drop in net income and revenue. The company attributes this downturn to shifting political sentiment and trade policy impacts. Musk plans to reduce his government role amid investor pressure, while Tesla faces challenges from trade tensions and skepticism about its autonomous robotaxi plans.

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, China offers Pakistan diplomatic support but signals limited intervention, prioritizing its own strategic interests. Despite the proclaimed all-weather friendship, Beijing's focus remains on internal stability, managing trade tensions, and de-escalating with India. Pakistan's reliance on China for unconditional support may be a miscalculation, as Beijing balances regional dynamics and its own priorities.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, reported a $40 billion loss in the first quarter, its biggest in six quarters, primarily due to declining tech stock valuations. While equity holdings suffered, fixed-income investments offered some balance. Despite the loss, the fund slightly outperformed its benchmark.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has announced a delay in employee salary hikes, initially scheduled for April 2025, due to global economic uncertainty and tariff concerns. Despite a revenue increase, net profit dipped, leading to this cautious decision. TCS will, however, maintain quarterly variable payouts and continue campus hiring, planning to recruit approximately 42,000 fresh graduates in FY26.

The bigger fear is a recession in the US, but otherwise, exporters see long-term advantage even in a lean season, especially with a Delhi-Washington trade deal likely & China-US relations deteriorating

Amidst escalating trade tensions with the US, fueled by Trump's tariffs, China is seeking new markets, particularly India. Despite past border clashes and investment restrictions, Chinese companies are now showing flexibility, accepting minority stakes and technology transfers to access India's growing market and potentially bypass US tariffs through Indian manufacturing.

Chinese exports soared more than 12 percent last month, according to data Monday, beating expectations as businesses rushed to get ahead of swingeing tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on his so-called "Liberation Day". - Frontloading - Analysts attributed the March surge to a rush to export ahead of Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs on all trade partners that sent global markets tumbling.

China said Monday that exports soared 12.4 percent year-on-year last month, beating expectations as Beijing navigated mounting trade headwinds sparked by US President Donald Trump. "The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced," Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said in a note.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee has reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, shifting its stance to accommodative amid global economic uncertainties. While the GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 has been slightly lowered to 6.5%, the CPI inflation outlook remains benign at 4%.

Amidst global economic uncertainties fueled by trade tariffs, the RBI has cut the repo rate to 6.5% and adopted an accommodative stance, signaling a potential for further rate reductions. While aiming for growth-supportive monetary policy, the RBI acknowledges challenges and revised downwards GDP growth projections for FY 2025-26 to 6.5%.