The Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) host the Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) at Amalie Arena on March 6. Puck drops at 7 p.m. ET, with the game airing on ESPN. Tampa Bay sits comfortably in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with 76 points. Buffalo? Dead last with 54 points.
This isn’t exactly a matchup of equals. The Lightning are built for the postseason. The Sabres are playing out the season. The numbers don’t lie—Tampa Bay ranks second in the NHL in goals per game (3.56), while Buffalo is near the bottom in goals allowed per game (3.45, 29th in the league). The gap is obvious, and unless something wild happens, Tampa Bay should walk away with two easy points.
Tampa Bay Lightning are in playoff form, Buffalo Sabres are in survival mode
The Lightning look ready for a deep run. Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 89 points, averaging half a goal per game while shooting at an efficient 13.9%. Brandon Hagel is at 68 points, and Brayden Point has 64 in just 56 games. They’re clicking at the right time, and with Andrei Vasilevskiy in net (29-16-3 record), they don’t have many weaknesses.
Buffalo, on the other hand, is barely holding on. Tage Thompson leads the team with 53 points, but the production beyond him drops fast. John-Jason Peterka has 49 points, and Rasmus Dahlin has 48, but the depth scoring is non-existent. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s .892 save percentage ranks 51st in the league—not ideal for a team getting peppered with shots nightly.
Why Tampa Bay Lightning should have this game wrapped up in two periods
Buffalo has been in freefall. Three straight losses to the Montreal Canadiens and San Jose Sharks—teams that aren’t exactly contenders—expose all of their flaws. Their defense can’t stop anything, and the goaltending isn’t bailing them out.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lit up the Columbus Blue Jackets for six goals and kept the Washington Capitals to just one. They’re dominant at home and rarely drop games against lower-tier teams.
Unless the Sabres come out playing like a different team, this should be over early. Tampa Bay’s offense is too sharp, their defense too solid, and Buffalo’s inability to close games makes a comeback unlikely. Expect Tampa Bay to put this one away before the third period even starts.