Canada election results 2025: Mark Carney vs Pierre Poilievre; who has the edge? Key takeaways

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has secured victory in Canada’s federal election, completing a remarkable political turnaround driven by surging nationalism in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats of annexation and a trade war. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported that the Liberals are set to win more seats in Parliament than the Conservatives, though it remains unclear if they will achieve an outright majority in the 343-seat House.

Just months ago, the Liberals appeared destined for a crushing defeat. However, President Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric — including threats to annex Canada as the “51st state” and the imposition of tariffs — galvanised Canadian voters, fuelling a wave of nationalism that reversed the Liberals' fortunes.


The Liberal Party’s resurgence coincided with significant internal changes. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity had plummeted amid soaring food and housing costs, resigned earlier this year. His successor, Mark Carney — a former central banker — quickly repositioned the party.

Trudeau resigned two weeks before Trump’s inauguration.
Carney’s steady leadership style contrasted sharply with Trump’s confrontational approach.
The political rebound was also timed with Trump’s second term, as Canadian voters became increasingly wary of US interference.

Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre had hoped to turn the election into a referendum on Trudeau’s legacy, arguing that the Liberals had “broken” the country. However, external threats overshadowed domestic grievances.

The result marks a significant defeat for Poilievre, who was seen as the Conservatives' best hope after nearly a decade of Liberal rule.

Initial tallies from Quebec suggest that the separatist Bloc Québécois has suffered a dramatic collapse, benefiting the Liberals.

This unexpected shift helped the Liberals strengthen their hold in the province, although it remains uncertain if it will be enough for a majority.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) faced a sharp decline in support nationwide, further clearing the path for a Liberal victory.

In Quebec, strong separatist sentiment initially threatened to fragment the vote, but ultimately consolidated behind the Liberals as national unity became a central issue.

While the Liberals have retained power, it remains uncertain whether they have achieved the 172 seats necessary for a majority.

Regardless of the final seat count, the election marks the Liberals' fourth consecutive victory — a feat last achieved by the party in 2004.

The Liberals' comeback was striking: just in January, they trailed the Conservatives by 20 points. The combined effects of Trump’s aggression and Trudeau’s resignation breathed new life into their campaign.