China’s military posturing in the Tasman Sea: A test for Australia’s strategic resolve

China’s naval presence and military exercises in the Tasman Sea—coming dangerously close to Australian and New Zealand air and sea routes—are more than just routine drills. This episode, where Chinese vessels reportedly conducted live-fire exercises without adequate prior notification, represents an escalation of Beijing’s growing strategic assertiveness in the South Pacific. It is yet another test of Australia’s response to an increasingly emboldened China, whose military footprint is expanding beyond the South China Sea and into key Indo-Pacific waterways.

China’s aggressive maritime expansion is not new. In the past decade, Beijing has systematically militarised artificial islands in the South China Sea, disregarded international tribunal rulings, and harassed vessels of other claimant states like the Philippines and Vietnam. In 2019, Australia witnessed first-hand China’s growing naval reach when a flotilla of Chinese warships unexpectedly sailed through the Torres Strait into the Coral Sea. More recently, China has deepened its presence in the South Pacific, signing a security pact with the Solomon Islands in 2022 and making diplomatic overtures to other Pacific nations.

This latest exercise in the Tasman Sea, where commercial airlines were forced to divert due to warnings from Chinese vessels, signals a new phase in Beijing’s regional ambitions. It is no longer just the South China Sea or the western Pacific that are within China’s strategic purview—Beijing is now testing waters closer to Australia’s own backyard.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his government have taken a cautious diplomatic approach, emphasising that China’s activities, while concerning, remain within international law. However, the lack of prior notification and the direct impact on civilian air routes highlight Beijing’s willingness to assert itself without traditional diplomatic courtesies.

The Australian military has monitored these developments closely, but its measured response reflects the broader balancing act Canberra has sought to maintain. On the one hand, Australia is a key US ally and a central player in regional security initiatives like AUKUS and the Quad, which aim to counter China’s rise. On the other hand, China remains Australia’s largest trading partner, making an overly confrontational approach economically risky.

The Quad—a security partnership between the US, India, Japan, and Australia—has become an increasingly significant mechanism in Canberra’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. As China’s maritime ambitions grow, Australia’s participation in joint military exercises and intelligence-sharing initiatives under the Quad framework will be vital in strengthening regional deterrence. Closer coordination with like-minded nations through the Quad also enhances Australia’s ability to respond to security threats without acting in isolation.

Yet, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult. Just last year, a Chinese fighter jet dangerously intercepted an Australian surveillance plane over the South China Sea, releasing flares in a move described as “unsafe and unprofessional.” Now, with Chinese warships flexing their muscles closer than ever before, Australia may have to reconsider its strategy.

The Chinese military’s growing assertiveness in the South Pacific and Tasman Sea presents a direct challenge to the region’s security framework. New Zealand, which has historically been more reserved in its stance on China, was quick to coordinate with Australia on monitoring these naval movements. This suggests Wellington may be moving closer to Canberra’s more security-conscious outlook.

For Australia, this episode could accelerate defence collaborations with allies, particularly through AUKUS, which will equip the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines. Additionally, greater intelligence sharing and coordinated maritime patrols with the US and other partners could serve as a deterrent to future provocations.

The United States and its Indo-Pacific allies will likely view China’s actions as a strategic probe—a way for Beijing to test the West’s resolve in responding to its expanding military footprint. Washington, already committed to strengthening its presence in the Pacific, may use this incident as further justification for bolstering military cooperation with Australia and regional partners.

Australia’s ties with China have fluctuated in recent years, marked by periods of both engagement and confrontation. After a diplomatic freeze caused by Australia’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, relations saw some normalisation in 2023. Trade restrictions on Australian exports such as barley and wine were lifted, and high-level dialogues resumed.

However, security concerns remain a major sticking point. Australia’s increasing integration with US-led security initiatives like AUKUS has been met with stern warnings from Beijing. China views these alliances as attempts to contain its rise, while Canberra sees them as essential to regional stability. The Tasman Sea manoeuvres only reinforce these tensions, demonstrating China’s willingness to assert its military presence in the broader Indo-Pacific.

China’s military drills in the Tasman Sea are not just isolated events; they are part of a broader strategy to push its influence further into the Pacific and challenge traditional security alignments. For Australia, the question is no longer if China will continue its assertive actions, but how Canberra should respond to a rising power willing to flex its military muscle on Australia’s doorstep.

The days of a purely diplomatic approach may be coming to an end. While Australia must avoid unnecessary escalation, it cannot afford to downplay China’s strategic ambitions. A firmer, more coordinated response—both diplomatically and militarily—will be necessary to ensure that the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific does not tilt too far in Beijing’s favour.

This latest episode serves as a wake-up call: China is watching how Australia reacts. If Canberra does not respond with a mix of strategic caution and firm resolve, Beijing will only push further, setting a precedent that may become even harder to reverse in the years to come.