Top Gun & Scattershot

With Trump taking office, there is considerable discussion about his India approach. Much of this has focused on bilateral issues, which are indeed important. But, as Indian govts have learnt in the past, whatever an American president or administration’s view on India per se, their broader worldview, priorities and policies can often be more consequential for India.New Delhi has some sense of these from the first Trump term. But it will also be crucial for India to follow the debates that will play out within this second Trump administration — with the president as the ultimate decider — on key regional and functional issues. Their outcome will affect New Delhi’s options and how Washington sees India.Invest, Adapt, Insulate | Last week, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee noted that when it comes to any country, he has three questions: What does America need from that country? What does that country want from US? Does what America is providing get America what it needs?India will be preparing for Trump administration asks that could flow from that first question, such as strategic cooperation, market access and tariff reductions, accepting higher number of deportation flights, and stemming the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl precursor chemicals. It will also seek to make the case that the answer to the third question is yes.This is likely to be part of a three-pronged approach of investing in deepening ties with US, adapting to Trump 2.0 and its different tone, tools and titans, and seeking to insulate itself through diversifying India’s partnerships, stabilising ties with China, and bolstering its own independent capabilities.But as New Delhi does so, it will also need to track several policy debates in Washington that could affect India’s interests, options, and required policy responses.China, Russia, Iran | One of the most consequential debates will be on China policy. Trump himself seems to have different instincts: at times, expressing geopolitical or economic concerns about China or calling for US to compete with this strategic rival; at other times, seeking a deal with Xi and questioning US commitments in the Indo-Pacific.Trump nominees and influencers include several China hawks, but also some who have a more sanguine or even positive view of China. How and when this debate evolves will have considerable implications for India, given US role in New Delhi’s strategy vis-à-vis China, impact on Beijing’s behaviour, willingness of other countries to balance China, and the knock-on effect it will have on some debates below and others such as how involved to be in international organisations and vis-à-vis the Global South.* Another debate that will affect India’s interests will be on Russia, especially whether, how and when the administration could help end the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has recently said a resolution will be “much more complicated” and take more time than expected. Other questions will be how to approach sanctions on Russia and the deepening Beijing-Moscow partnership.* A third debate might be on US policy toward Iran. Some in Trump’s orbit have argued for not just maximum diplomatic and economic pressure but even the potential American or Israeli use of force to curb Tehran’s nuclear or regional ambitions. Others are wary of US military interventionism and Trump indeed campaigned on staying away from “forever wars”. There has even been some speculation from outside analysts about whether he might be open to a deal with Iran.For India, the outcome of this debate will matter because it will not want to see regional instability. Rather, New Delhi will be hoping that the Israel-Hamas deal paves the way for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and an Israeli-Saudi agreement that could also benefit India.Onshoring, Nearshoring, Friendshoring | There will also be several debates on the functional side with implications for India. How, for instance, Trump will execute his trade agenda. Will tariffs be across the board, or sector or country specific, will there be willingness to make exceptions for countries for strategic reasons, and what kind of deals will he find sufficient. In addition, industrial policy will be debated, including the balance the administration will want to see between onshoring, nearshoring and friendshoring.There will also be debates related to the energy sector — will the administration only focus on fossil fuels or will it also continue to facilitate American companies in the renewable sector for strategic (secure supply chains), economic (competitiveness), and political (investments and job creation) reasons.And there will be a range of technology-related debates that could affect India, including on export controls, AI regulation, outbound and inbound investment rules, supply chain coordination, and talent acquisition. As has already been evident, there are different factions in Trumpworld on high-skilled immigration.The result of these debates will depend on several factors, including the president’s own view, the level of influence of competing stakeholders, and how various countries respond. The first Trump term suggests that a conclusion once reached does not mean a debate is settled — the president might change his mind or the circumstances can change. Thus, India and other countries will need to keep constant track of these debates and how they evolve. And some will probably even seek to shape their outcomes.The writer is a columnist based in Washington DC