Will Kaladan restore what Dhaka may take away?

Bangladesh’s Yunus-led interim govt once again triggered controversy last week when one of its advisers, ALM Fazlur Rahman, suggested on his social media account that if India attacks Pakistan (after the Pahalgam terror), Bangladesh should occupy India’s Northeast through a joint military arrangement with China.While Dhaka officially distanced itself from the comment, the strain in India-Bangladesh ties means New Delhi needs to solve its Northeast dilemma. Here’s what’s at stake and how India can potentially break Bangladesh’s chokehold through nimble moves in neighbouring Myanmar.Prisoner of geography | One of the biggest impediments to the Northeast’s development has been its landlocked geography. The only land access to the region from the rest of India is via the narrow 22km-wide Siliguri Corridor. This significantly raises the cost of trade and transport to the Northeast and poses a serious strategic dilemma for New Delhi. The Corridor is surrounded by Nepal, Tibet, Bhutan and Bangladesh, making it a potential target for inimical forces that want to sever the Northeast from the rest of India.Golden period under Hasina | Good relations between New Delhi and Dhaka under Sheikh Hasina’s terms were vital for the Northeast and India’s Look East policy. Hasina not only ensured Bangladeshi soil couldn’t be used by anti-India forces but also greenlit transit and trans-shipment of goods and people through Bangladeshi territory.For example, in 2023, Bangladesh cleared the use of its Chattogram and Mongla ports for transit and trans-shipment by India, cutting time and costs. This, for instance, allowed cargo to be transported from Haldia port near Kolkata to Tripura via Bangladesh’s Chattogram.Dark clouds | But the strain in New Delhi-Dhaka ties since Hasina’s ouster in Aug 2024 means all of this connectivity is under a cloud. In Tripura, for example, goods and people coming via Bangladesh have drastically reduced, affecting the local economy.Meanwhile, Dhaka last Dec cancelled a high-speed internet project for the Northeast that would use Bangladesh as transit. In April, India cancelled trans-shipment facilities for Bangladeshi goods via its own ports to third countries – except Nepal and Bhutan – after Yunus’s comments in China that Bangladesh was the “guardian” of the Indian Ocean, inviting Chinese investments in this direction.The Myanmar solution | Given the current situation, India needs to prepare contingencies in case things sour further with Bangladesh. A natural solution is transit to the Northeast via Myanmar’s Rakhine state.After all, India is invested in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project that aims to connect Kolkata port with Sittwe seaport in Myanmar’s Rakhine (or Arakan) state and then use the Kaladan river to go up to Paletwa in Chin state before embarking by road on the final stretch from Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram.The project that started in the late-2000s cuts the distance between Kolkata and Sittwe by about 1,328km and obviates the need to transport goods both via the Siliguri Corridor and Bangladesh.In other words, if problems with Bangladesh worsen and Dhaka cuts off transit routes to the Northeast, the Kaladan project provides a vital alternative link to the region bypassing Bangladeshi territory.The challenges | But the Kaladan project has suffered several delays because of the civil war in Myanmar and the linked Rohingya issue. While Mizoram governor VK Singh recently said the Indian side of the project is complete, the road connecting to Paletwa on the Myanmar side – a 109km highway – is yet to be built.Add to this the fact that practically all of Rakhine state and southern Chin state – including Paletwa – are now under the control and influence of the rebel Arakan Army. But Sittwe is still held by the Myanmar junta. This puts India in a tricky position given New Delhi’s old relationship with the Myanmar army. It’s clear, however, that Kaladan can’t go ahead without the support of Arakan Army.Tricky talks | India has established back channels with Arakan Army and an invitation was reportedly sent to the group last Sept to attend a seminar in New Delhi. Speaking to TOI for this story, U Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the president’s office of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) – the opposition coalition to the military junta – appealed for India’s humanitarian assistance. “India has an interest in Rakhine state because of its Kaladan connectivity project.” Saying that he hoped Indian govt “will engage with all stakeholders for mutual benefit”, he added that New Delhi’s “supporting the junta will only lead to more violence and instability and not lead to the mutual benefits India seeks.”According to U Kyaw Zaw, the junta staged 300 airstrikes against civilian targets in Myanmar even after the devastating earthquake in March. So, he says, it’s important for New Delhi “to coordinate with NUG and ethnic stakeholders, provide humanitarian assistance, and open up border trading posts to realise mutual benefits.”To sum up, actualising the Kaladan project is an insurance against problematic ties with Bangladesh. But it won’t happen without the support of NUG and Arakan Army. However, New Delhi openly supporting the latter will push the junta into Beijing’s arms. Indian diplomacy certainly has its task cut out to solve the Kaladan puzzle.