Is the Moon at risk from asteroid 2024 YR4? Here’s what you need to know

Asteroid 2024 YR4, previously thought to pose a threat to Earth as per reports, but now has been cleared of any significant threat to our planet. But there remains a low-level threat for the Moon. The path of the asteroid is still being monitored by scientists as it remains close to both Earth and the Moon. This situation highlights the importance of ongoing observation to accurately track asteroids and assess any future risks.

As per recent reports, NASA said the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has reduced significantly. The earliest astronomers had estimated the chances of collision at 3%, which they later reduced to as low as 0.28%. This was after carrying out a comprehensive re-computation of the asteroid's trajectory and other data. While the Earth is no longer in danger, NASA is not relaxing its guard and will continue to keep the asteroid under close surveillance to monitor whether there is any alteration in its path.

Whereas the Earth is presently in the clear, recent reports make it necessary to shift focus to the Moon to a small degree. Although the danger is minimal, there is presently a 1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 might hit the Moon. Although this is still an extremely unlikely event, it does indicate an intensification of the threat, so the Moon is now a bigger target in this emerging situation. Experts have also pointed out that the present is not a cause for worry, since the likelihood is still low, but this occurrence also goes to show the volatile character of space and the fact that one must always remain alert.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was found on December 27, 2024, by astronomers at Chile's El Sauce Observatory, is quite massive, having a diameter of 40 to 90 meters. Although as large as it would cause devastation if it were to hit Earth, the new trajectory of the asteroid removes it from immediate danger's grasp. Its initial projected first date for hitting Earth, on December 22, 2032, is rendered obsolete by the fact that the asteroid now moves away from our planet. Scientists still monitor the asteroid in April of 2025, when it will not be visible until 2028.
Although it has minimized the threat to Earth, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) will still follow the course of the asteroid. With the data still fluctuating, NASA's planetary defense team will still fine-tune their projections and be prepared for any shift in the asteroid's path. The monitoring is being done to keep us alerted and prepared for anything.
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