‘Pakistan will be in danger of losing a lot of aircraft and missiles if it escalates’

medium121051040Operation Sindoor is seen as India’s first major joint military action against Pakistan since the 1971 war.New Delhi has sent a clear message to Islamabad that none of its cities would be safe from India’s counter-measures if they continue to harbour terrorists, says Brigadier (retd) Rumel Dahiya, a noted military analyst and former deputy director general of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, India’s premier defence think tank.A distinguished Army veteran, Dahiya also served as India’s defence attaché to Turkey, Syria and Lebanon. In an interview to TOI Plus, he explains several critical issues linked to the current conflict, including why the Pakistan Army may continue to provoke India and why China will not provide any direct military support to Pakistan despite their iron-clad ties. Edited excerpts:Do you think that with the May 7 precision strikes at nine locations, India has taken its cross-border counter-terror operations to the next level?You see, compared to what we did earlier in 2016 and 2019, obviously, it’s an expanded operation in the sense that we have hit many more targets than what we did earlier. Second distinction, of course, is that this time, we have gone beyond Pakistan-occupied Kashmir… and we have gone and hit them in their heartland.Thirdly, this is perhaps for the first time that precision weapons have been used effectively and in a manner that is proven, which nobody can dispute. So, obviously, it sends a message that in case Pakistan continues to do what it is doing, then none of their places are safe from our counter-measures.So, it shows [our] political will; it shows our capability. And to that extent, I think it sends a message of deterrence. But having said that, considering their past behaviour, I’m not too sure that they will not attempt something silly again, because from the Pakistani military point of view, it [such behaviour] is rational. It is irrational for India and probably for the rest of the world. mediumCan you explain why Pakistan will continue to provoke India?It is absolutely rational for them [Pakistan Army] because their survival, their position in the society [depends on this logic] that they own the country, the country doesn’t own them. Now, this is sustainable only if they [Pakistani military] keep convincing their people that India is a threat to them, and they are the only one who can keep Pakistan safe.So, if they have to maintain that narrative, then it’s absolutely rational what they are doing.I think [this time] we have tried to raise the bar. We have tried to convey to the people of Pakistan and to the world at large that, look, terrorism is not acceptable to us. You do it, next time we are going to be harsher on [you]. Of course, the ultimate deterrence is to defeat the Pakistan Army to the extent that the people in Pakistan themselves start openly blaming them and treating them like they were treated in 1971 [after their surrender to the Indian Army and the Bangladeshi Mukti Bahini]. But then, the situation has changed quite a lot [since then].Today, we are [on track] to be the fourth-largest economy. And, god willing, in another two-three years’ time, [we could be] the third-largest economy in the world. And there will be many people in this world who would like to retard our progress rather than letting us progress to that level.We should be mindful of that as well. So, there’s a responsibility of the government to ensure security to the people. At the same time, there’s also the responsibility of the government to make sure that the people are prosperous, and the prosperity can only come with economic growth. We know who wants to stall our economic growth. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/NVMRiOzVG1o?si=6mPaOqXgyeOAd3nUWhat about Pakistani retaliation?If they do something big, then they are in danger of losing a lot of aircraft, lot of missiles. And more than that, they will be risking a very heavy retaliation from India. But we have made it very clear. Our NSA [national security adviser Ajit Doval] has spoken to NSAs of the countries which matter a lot. He has conveyed to them that in case Pakistan retaliates now, our retaliation will be much heavier. I think that message has been conveyed properly.They would probably also like to be careful about the escalation matrix — how far can they escalate and would they be able to then absorb the retaliation that we will bring upon them? I think, overall, they also realise that they are much weaker… their ability to control the escalation ladder. We can take it much higher. And our ability to absorb losses is also much higher than them, because we are a bigger country and a bigger economy than Pakistan. mediumIs Pakistan really prepared for a war?I think neither Pakistan nor we are prepared [for a war]. I will give you the rationale. Preparations for a war take a lot of time. For instance, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought two wars [in 2020 and 2023] for control over Nagorno-Karabakh. [The two sides successfully wrapped up a peace deal in March this year].In this particular case [post-Pahalgam escalation], neither side has stockpiles of ammunition or weapons for two months.Sometimes a war becomes a necessity, because if you don’t fight a war at a particular time, if there is a provocation, then you are considered a weak power. Then the public morale goes down. And if a nation’s morale goes down, it means a nation is [heading towards] a catastrophe. The nation’s morale has to be kept high always. Sometimes a war has to be fought to suppress an evil, to teach a lesson to somebody who is misbehaving with you.And let me also tell you that to fight a war or to start a war or to stop the war is the biggest single decision that a government must make.So, in case there is a war [between India and Pakistan], in comparative terms, I can say, we are a much larger economy and we can bear the cost of the war. Pakistan probably won’t be able to bear that cost as its economy is in shambles.Some reports said Pakistan is facing an acute shortage of artillery shells.I think the immediate reason for the shortage of ammunition, which is believable, is that Pakistan was asked by the UK and the US to sell quite a lot of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. This was picked up by British aircraft and was taken to Cyprus.There is a British military station in Cyprus, which also houses a very large establishment of Five Eyes [an intelligence alliance of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand].From Cyprus, the cargo was taken to Poland [and then to Ukraine]. Pakistan has sold quite a lot of ammunition. And, obviously, it is possible that they may have diluted their [ammunition] reserves to make money [given Pakistan’s economic conditions]. To me, this appears to be a logical line of thought, if the reports are true. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/jYGDfv0riUA?si=_7V82WZz2fqjpovnWhat is your assessment of China’s position on the whole issue?They [China and Pakistan] have been supporting each other for a very long time. Even in 1962 [during the Sino-Indian war], they had an understanding, but Pakistan did not send troops [to support China].Similarly, China did not send troops in 1965, 1971 or even in 1999 [during three wars between India and Pakistan]. Pakistan did not do anything misadventurous during the 2020 Galwan episode [between Indian and Chinese troops]. So, my suspicion is that China would give them [Pakistan] diplomatic cover — sort of misdeeds that they [China] are doing in the UN Security Council. [China has repeatedly blocked India’s proposals to list Pakistani terrorists on the UN sanction list.]China is seen as one of the supporters to keep the Pakistani public’s morale high. Probably, China will give some more weapons and ammunition to Pakistan on a long-term credit as they [China] say they don’t give anything for free to anybody. They can also provide them [Pakistan] information [intelligence] because they have satellites, etc.So, China could provide this kind of support. But, physical support, I don’t think so because there is a risk. Tomorrow, if there is a conflict that involves China, it [Beijing] cannot say why others are supporting its opponents. Be it India, Japan, or Taiwan. So, they have to keep this thing in mind that there will be a payback time in case they do something silly now. mediumChina also has a lot at stake in Pakistan in terms of CPEC.That’s true. There is quite a lot of disillusionment among the Chinese — that their projects [under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor] are not progressing well, that there is a lot of corruption from Pakistani contractors and subcontractors, that the projects are delayed.Besides, there are issues like Pakistan not being able to put in their share of money in the projects, repayments from various power projects, etc. China is facing all those problems, and some people in China, especially their economists, must be questioning the rationale of sinking more money there.During Imran Khan’s tenure [as PM], he started asking basic questions about how cost effective these projects were and how useful they were for Pakistan. That’s when the projects slowed down. And, I think, the slowdown continues. That’s one part of the issue.The other part is China spent billions of dollars in Pakistan and that’s a lot of money. Plus, it [CPEC] was supposed to be a flagship project, aimed at demonstrating to the world how China can transform the economy of a friendly country. Unfortunately, nobody has seen this on the ground.But the Chinese would also be worried about another thing. If China comes out in full support of Pakistan, then any project that China is undertaking in Pakistan will be a fair target for us. So, they would be worried about that also. In that scenario, they can’t say [to India] that “don’t touch our projects”. If China is colluding with our enemy, they will also be seen as our enemy. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/ZZUbM1Y6Ii4?si=aW5q7JvNpRhPTfNdBangladesh is getting closer to Pakistan after Sheikh Hasina’s exit. Do you think Pakistan’s ISI will reactivate jihadi-terror sleeper cells there, irrespective of the current conflict?Yes. War or no war, they [Pakistan] will still try and activate those elements; there will still be some kind of a collusion between the intelligence agencies of both the countries.There are many hotheads in Bangladesh. You remember the time when the BNP [Bangladesh Nationalist Party] was in power? Insurgent groups from India’s Northeast like ULFA [United Liberation Front of Asom] were operating from Bangladesh. There were reports of ULFA [chief Paresh Baruah] investing millions of dollars in Bangladeshi companies. They were running front offices in Dhaka.Before that, they [East Pakistan, now Bangladesh] used to support Naga and Mizo rebels.There are still some people in Bangladesh who were once collaborators with Pakistan [during the 1971 war]. The Jamaat-e-Islami, for instance. They didn’t want independence because of the religious angle.Even before independence, Islam was more pronounced in East Pakistan than in the western part. Regions like North-West Frontier Province [now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa] and Balochistan were more inclined towards India. So, there is a history of Islamism in Bangladesh.Media reports suggest that the Islamists are really taking advantage of the present-day [interim] government. Many of them have been released from jail.But, let me tell you this. Bangladeshis are also cerebral people. There are many people in Bangladesh who are very rational in their thinking. As far as their support to Pakistan is concerned, they know that the India-Pakistan conflict will come to an end within a few days. Where will they go after that? They have to worry about their vulnerabilities.They are very much dependent on India, be it for water, connectivity, electricity or food aid. They are surrounded by India from three sides. Their future lies in having a good relationship with India. It is also important for Bangladesh to realise that they need to have a good relationship with India if they want to make progress. After all, India is the world’s fastest growing [major] economy.For India as well, it is absolutely necessary to have a good relationship with Bangladesh — for our foreign policy, for our economy, and for strategic reasons.So, I don’t think they Bangladesh] will go bonkers on this; they lack the capacity. Their army chief is a very rational person. He made some statements recently. He understands that there is no use annoying India. mediumPakistan keeps saying that they have nukes!Nuclear weapons are not for use. We know it and they also know it. They can kill a few thousands of people. But Pakistan understands this very well that they will cease to exist as a country, they will vanish from the map of the world, if we use [the nuclear option]. They understand this and the world understands this.Nukes are not toy guns. And the onus of not taking things to that level is on Pakistan.I would have expected [PM] Shehbaz Sharif to say that ‘Let’s stop this war. Let’s end terrorism because terrorism affects us all. We will make sure that terrorism doesn’t exist in Pakistan’ etc. But then, he’s not his own master. He is a hired prime minister.Nawaz Sharif tried to make peace with India and see how he was sabotaged. The Pakistan Army did not let him do anything [positive].There has to be a revolution in Pakistan where a powerful leader comes and sends the army back to its barracks. Only then, things will improve between India and Pakistan. And I don’t see anything of that sort happening [in the near future].And to expect that there will be no terrorist activity after this operation [Operation Sindoor] would be delusional. Random acts of terrorism may continue.On the larger play, we are winning, in the sense that the number of terrorist incidents have gone down compared to what used to happen before [in Jammu and Kashmir]. People are making progress. A large number of people are going to the [Kashmir] Valley for holidays.If some random acts happen [from Pakistan’s side], we need to punish them.TOI+ complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here