INDIA alliance: Parties wake up to its fragility

INDIA alliance has always been perceived as a triumph of hope over experience. The events of December 2023 and January this year appear to reinforce its image of incoherence.There was, first, the defeat of Congress in three Assembly elections at the hands of BJP. The defeat was blamed by many INDIA partners on the arrogance of Congress, particularly its unwillingness to have seat adjustments with smaller parties. Although it is unlikely the verdict in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would have been different if Congress had left a few seats to Samajwadi Party and CPM, the defeat gave smaller parties an opportunity to bring Congress down a notch or two.Secondly, although all the alliance partners stayed away from attending pran pratishtha of the Ram temple in Ayodhya on January 22, all parties except DMK and Communists were overcome by uneasiness over the impact of the event on different communities. While there was unquestionably a reinforcement of Muslim support for INDIA alliance, it was clouded by uncertainty over the extent to which the outpouring of Hindutva sentiment would impact the general election.Congress is sharply divided between Left constitutionalists and Nehruvians who have Rahul Gandhi’s ear and old-style leaders favouring explicit association with Hindu culture. Likewise, the Aam Aadmi Party is anxious to not be disentangled from popular religion at the grassroots.Even Mamata Banerjee could not have failed to notice that her multi-faith event in South Kolkata on January 22 failed to secure the participation of any Hindu religious figure of consequence. That all major Hindu institutions in West Bengal, including Ramakrishna Mission and Bharat Sevashram Sangha, had special events commemorating the ‘return’ of Lord Ram to Ayodhya has created concern in Trinamool Congress. There is some evidence that in being culturally dismissive towards the temple in Ayodhya, it misread the mood of Bengali Hindus, particularly in small towns and villages.Finally, maybe because of the narrative that the re-election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister for the third consecutive term is just a formality, the motivation of some regional parties to go with a Congress-led formation appears to be waning. No one, least of all Nitish Kumar himself, can be entirely sure on which side of the political divide the chief minister of Bihar will find himself in, when the campaign begins. Whether or not he changes sides again, he has quite emphatically conveyed the message to voters that stable government and INDIA alliance are not synonymous.A realisation of its inherent fragility is making it difficult for parties in INDIA alliance to make any progress in seat-sharing.In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena (UBT) doesn’t want to lose its status as senior partner of the alliance with Congress and NCP. Aam Aadmi Party wants Congress to give AAP seats in Gujarat and Haryana if it is to be accommodated in Delhi and Punjab. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee wants an alliance with Congress at the national level but doesn’t want to have anything to do with the state unit led by Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. The state Congress, in turn, would rather persist with its alliance with CPM and a small Muslim party. Complicating everything further is the determination of the CPM and Trinamool Congress to not have anything to do with each other.There are two other complicating factors. First, regardless of the appointment of Mallikarjun Kharge as a symbolic head, INDIA alliance lacks a leader who commands popular acceptance or wields authority in the same way as Jayaprakash Narayan did in 1977 and Vishwanath Pratap Singh in 1989. Consequently, there are multiple players who feel that since there is no leader with the stature to be posited against Modi, it is best to leave the question unattended. The flip side is that no one has the authority to set the terms of a working alliance.Also, a workable opposition alliance could have come together had the Modi government been truly regarded as intolerable — as the Emergency was perceived in 1977. For all the accusations of authoritarianism, majoritarianism and fascism heaped on the Modi government, the reality is that constituents of INDIA alliance control multiple state governments. Furthermore, the Constitution acts as a check on any government’s desire to refashion India in its image. In short, non-BJP parties know only too well that if they can command public support, they will have a place under the sun.The desperation to remove Modi is absent in both public life and among parties in the opposition. As long as this remains so, the role of INDIA alliance will remain half-hearted and symbolic.