How Rahul finally got it right in his fight against Modi

When, contrary to many pundits’ and its own expectations, Congress lost late-2023 assembly polls in the heartland, two things didn’t happen. One, Rahul Gandhi didn’t lose his temper. Two, he disagreed with party veterans like Ashok Gehlot who said the BJP won by polarising voters. He had pointed out that in Rajasthan, for example, Congress vote share (40%) was just 2 percentage points behind BJP’s (42%). That’s not a sign of polarisation, Gandhi had said, that’s a sign of poor communication.Four months later, that cool-headed analysis seems to have paid off. Gandhi had told Congress seniors that an Ayodhya-focused BJP can be confronted, with a good agenda backed by a better campaign.The 2024 general election did see Congress run a far better campaign — fronted by a calm, collected Rahul Gandhi. The change seems to have happened as he walked those miles, crisscrossing India during his Bharat Jodo Yatra.The 2024 Congress story is a story of Rahul Gandhi’s evolution. The new Gandhi didn’t let Congress’ poor Lok Sabha numbers in 2014 and 2019 demoralise him. He didn’t let December 2023’s heartland losses break his heart. He didn’t let an aggressive Narendra Modi intimidate him.His party was in blue funk in December 2023. Congress’ 2024 strategy was predicated on wins in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and a close fight in Rajasthan. Anticipation of good results had even led to Congress deferring the organisational restructuring by a year, and the defeats saddled it with serious holes in management of states close to polls. medium110729050But Rahul rallied his troops, ordered fresh strategising, and worked on a manifesto that went into the heart of the Congress’ UPA-era agenda of welfare-jobs-growth. If the manifesto struck a chord with voters, Congress owes much to Gandhi. He has been at the forefront of a “guarantees” based welfare policy and caste outreach, repeatedly arguing this was the only way to take on a no-holds-barred campaign of polarisation by BJP.For Gandhi and the party, the stakes were clear. The Modi machine billed this general election as the ticket to Modi’s place in history. There was huge asymmetry in resources between Congress and BJP, blanket media coverage of Modi, arrests of Opposition leaders, and income-tax action on Congress bank accounts. Post Ayodhya consecration, it looked like a one-party election.Then came the poll schedule. A two-month, seven-phase election seemed to favour Modi, who could campaign across the country, backed by a party flush with funds.For Congress, the much talked about existential crisis seemed finally here.Except for Rahul Gandhi.He persevered, held strategy sessions, and sharpened his ideas. The key idea: maximise gains in the south, pick up seats in the north, and try breaking new ground in states that had gone barren after the advent of Modi. Seats Congress has won in the north — UP, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab — are a testament to a resilience that none but Gandhi believed in. medium110728931It was a methodical approach. Few in the party wanted an east-west Bharat Jodo Yatra after the December state defeats, but the Gandhi scion had a plan. Strategists picked 100-plus districts and seats where they thought Congress stood a decent chance in the general election. Gandhi covered 110 districts across 15 states in 62 days. The joint shows with INDIA allies became a forerunner for a campaign of unity.The approach was pragmatic. At the high table of Congress planning, Mallikarjun Kharge and Gandhi were unanimous that the party had to strike compromises and ensure that the anti-BJP alliance held firm. Congress contested 326 seats, the lowest in LS election history.This was premised on one belief Rahul Gandhi had — that Modi had to be opposed and that the Opposition can’t be a passive player or an occasional right-wing drumbeater out of fear of popular backlash, or stay on right side of what Congress sees as a vindictive prosecution machinery.This was Gandhi’s strategy from Day 1 of the first Modi sarkar. He took a 55-day sabbatical to force Congress to toe his line. That led to public agitations against amendments to the Land Acquisition Act. That also made him one of the key players in getting Lalu Prasad to accept his nemesis Nitish as the face of the Mahagatbandhan that humbled BJP in Bihar in late 2015. medium110737929There were a string of disappointments, especially the Pulwama-influenced 2019 election. But later, working as the backroom strategist after Kharge’s elevation as party chief, he unfurled the Yatras and the agenda of pro-poor outreach and “mohabbat ki dukaan”.In these polls, Gandhi’s sharply ideological line paid dividends. Broken up Opposition parties like Uddhav Sena and Sharad Pawar NCP, parties targeted by probe agencies, RJD, AAP and JMM, agreed to take Gandhi’s line — that standing for secularism, civil rights and the Constitution was the only counter in a Modi-dominated, Hindutva-laden political atmosphere. And INDIA’s campaign had the unmistakable imprint of Rahul Gandhi.Caste census emerged from this thinking as a stick to beat BJP with, and Opposition targeted votes of three pan-India groups — Dalits, Muslims and OBCs. Inside his own party, Gandhi’s “radical” positioning on secularism and reservations was doubted by many old timers schooled in centrist politics. But he pressed on.He made mistakes. It was no surprise that when his “chowkidar chor hai” campaign backfired in 2019, he was the only one surprised in Congress. Others had foreseen the disaster the shrill pitch was inviting, given Pulwama and Balakot. His other mistakes: Rafale fizzled out during the 2019 campaign, and Pegasus petered out during Modi’s second term. Many asked him to be pragmatic. Not all govt transgressions and scandals, no matter how serious, resonated with the public, especially when BJP had systemic hegemony under a popular leader.Watch: Rahul silences critics as Cong bounces back medium nocaption110711214Reassessing, this time he continued his focus on Modi, but attacked him on governance “failures” — jobs, prices, unequal growth, small business ‘distress’, and social justice. National security, especially after Galwan, was a big issue for Gandhi, but the party didn’t highlight in its campaign. The “electoral bonds scam” was widely used, but only as a mood enhancer around the “panch nyay” hype.The smart use of the campaigning trio of Kharge, Gandhi and Priyanka helped Congress match BJP’s firepower. Between them, they addressed 335 rallies and events.But ultimately, it boiled down to communication with voters. By general reckoning, and with even rivals tipping their hat, Congress was at its smartest in the publicity game — short videos, wit over anger and outrage, targeting Modi on manifesto issues. They reminded many of the 2004 “aam aadmi” campaign. Door knocks, press conferences, nukkad sabhas were used for targeting voters at block and sub-district level. Gandhi’s own YouTube channel notched 35 crore views in 28 days till mid-May.2024’s will go down as a rare election in contemporary times when a party fought an election on its manifesto, even delivering it to every household in a constituency.It showed that voters can reward simple promises targeting basic needs even in times of polarisation and cult-style campaigns.It showed this time Rahul Gandhi, fighting an aggressive right, had got in right.