Troy State vs Buffalo Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Troy State vs Buffalo

Troy State face Buffalo in this NCAAF Week 4 matchup at University of Buffalo Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 03:30 on Sunday 21 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Bet on a Higher Total than the Line Suggests

There’s juice available when it comes to backing Over 43.5 points between Buffalo and Troy State. Our betting prediction is priced up at 1.87 which looks worth taking.

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Buffalo Landed Victory in Last Game

Troy State Trojans suffered a second consecutive defeat when losing 28-7 in their previous game. This was at home to Memphis Tigers at Veterans Memorial Stadium.

Buffalo Bulls won last time out by a 31-28 scoreline. On the road against Kent State Golden Flashes at Dix Stadium, they made it back-to-back wins.

Troy State vs Buffalo Prediction & Picks

We cover the key Troy State vs Buffalo betting angles, showcasing our expert match prediction, correct score selection and a bet builder tailored for the best value.

Game Prediction

There are odds of 1.87 about Over 43.5 points and this looks generous for this college football showdown. The bar might have been set too low in terms of total.

Our CFB handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each team, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.

Key Troy State vs Buffalo stats:

• The 43.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Troy State games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Troy State games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in the last 5 Buffalo games at home.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Buffalo games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Buffalo games at home.

Over 43.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 53.5% chance of winning. After careful examination, our cappers have this probability close to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this college bet.

There’s the opportunity to secure bigger odds when you wager on the Totals. The sportsbooks allow you to move the line for an Over pick until you’re happy with the potential return.

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Best Bet

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Correct Score Prediction

Troy State 17 - 31 Buffalo

There are some huge returns lying in wait if you can get the correct score right. With this in mind, we’ll have a play on the Bulls to enjoy a 31-17 winning scoreline.

Troy State vs Buffalo Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Have Buffalo as Favorites

With the sportsbooks giving them a 71% probability of winning this college game, Buffalo might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their 1.41 Moneyline betting odds. Troy State are the underdogs at 2.95 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The spread is currently 6.5, with the total points line at 43.5. Football fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Total wager. If you fancy Over 43.5, this outcome can be backed at 1.87. 

There’s no shortage of betting opportunities when it comes to college football. The best betting apps offer a wide variety of team props and game lines for each game, so be sure to explore both the pre-game and in-game markets before making your pick.

Player Props & Micro Betting

As an alternative to the game lines, check out the quarterback and player props that are available. These can be a great alternative if you want to focus on a player’s performance. The gambling sites will provide lots of options.

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to college football micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Can Buffalo Keep Their Home Form Going?

Buffalo have put together three straight wins at University of Buffalo Stadium. They are 6-4 in their last 10 home games, posting 30.90 points per contest while yielding 20.80.

Troy State own a 3-7 mark in their past 10 games away from home, averaging 24.20 points on offense and surrendering 28.10 on defense.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Buffalo Home Stats		6-4	51.70	30.90	20.80	5	5
Troy State Away Stats		3-7	52.30	24.20	28.10	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Troy State Trojans Stats

Buffalo Bulls Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 55.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 26.60 pts and allowed 28.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 24.20 pts and allowed 28.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 60.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 51.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.10 pts and allowed 26.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 30.90 pts and allowed 20.80 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Mid-American	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Bowling Green	2	1	69	54	15	2-0	0-1	1W
Buffalo	2	1	86	57	29	1-0	1-1	2W
Toledo	2	1	121	45	76	2-0	0-1	2W
Northern Illinois	1	1	28	37	-9	1-0	0-1	1L
Ball State	1	2	37	102	-65	1-0	0-2	1W
Central Michigan	1	2	36	122	-86	0-0	1-2	2L
Kent State	1	2	63	110	-47	1-1	0-1	2L
Ohio	1	2	57	81	-24	1-0	0-2	1L
Akron	0	3	28	109	-81	0-1	0-2	3L
Eastern Michigan	0	3	73	128	-55	0-1	0-2	3L
Massachusetts	0	3	43	116	-73	0-2	0-1	3L
Miami (OH)	0	2	17	62	-45	0-0	0-2	2L
Western Michigan	0	3	36	94	-58	0-1	0-2	3L

Sun Belt	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Appalachian State	2	1	76	62	14	1-0	1-1	1L
Old Dominion	2	1	113	59	54	1-0	1-1	2W
Southern Miss	2	1	93	76	17	2-1	0-0	2W
Texas State	2	1	110	97	13	1-0	1-1	1L
James Madison	1	1	59	38	21	1-0	0-1	1L
UL Monroe	1	1	29	73	-44	1-0	0-1	1L
Coastal Carolina	1	2	20	86	-66	1-1	0-1	1L
Georgia Southern	1	2	75	135	-60	1-0	0-2	1W
Georgia State	1	2	60	122	-62	1-1	0-1	1W
Marshall	1	2	65	73	-8	1-1	0-1	1W
Arkansas State	1	2	72	104	-32	1-1	0-1	2L
Louisiana	1	2	56	76	-20	1-1	0-1	1L
South Alabama	1	2	84	85	-1	1-1	0-1	2L
Troy State	1	2	61	75	-14	1-1	0-1	2L