Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Jul 2025

Side With Mercury Against The Spread

Our best bet is the Mercury against the spread. +5.5 at odds of 1.94 look generous and we’re happy to back the underdogs with this advantage against the Liberty.

Mercury Beat Liberty in Pair’s Previous Matchup

Phoenix Mercury were defeated in their previous game. They were beaten at home to Atlanta Dream by a 90-79 scoreline at Footprint Center.

New York Liberty were winners last time out. It was a 98-84 home victory against Indiana Fever at Barclays Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury have claimed back-to-back victories over the Liberty. At Barclays Center they won 89-81 before winning 106-91 at Footprint Center. The Liberty have won six of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
4  Mercury	23	14	3077	2963	114	12-6	11-8	2W
5  Liberty	23	15	3253	3097	156	15-5	8-10	1W

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks

We’re confident of Mercury staying close in this WNBA contest, with our pick being that they’ll cover the spread. The +5.5 line looks generous at odds of 1.94.

The form is always taken into consideration and it’s great to combine this with team news as it becomes available. In order to provide an expert WNBA verdict, the latest stats are analysed so that we have the best information.

Key Mercury vs Liberty stats:

• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Liberty in 2 consecutive games against Mercury.

Mercury +5.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 51.5% chance of delivering a return. However, we have this number closer to 60% based on our in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

If you want to secure a bigger potential payout on your wager, there’s the possibility to move the betting line. Take a look at the various odds and see which spread you think will be covered.

Best Bet

Mercury +5.5 @ 1.94 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Assists 2.03

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be backed to finish with Over 9.5 assists at 2.03. We’re happy to wager that she is able to cover the line, with this Player Assists bet making appeal.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 13.5

1.98

Under 13.5

1.79

Assists

Over 9.5

2.00

Under 9.5

1.77

Rebounds

Over 7.5

1.94

Under 7.5

1.82

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Breanna Stewart Over 6.5 Rebounds 1.77

Breanna Stewart (Liberty) is available at 1.77 to record Over 6.5 rebounds. We recommend taking the pick that she is able to cover the line, with this Player Rebounds bet hopefully providing a return.

Latest Breanna Stewart Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 19.5

1.97

Under 19.5

1.80

Assists

Over 3.5

1.88

Under 3.5

1.88

Rebounds

Over 6.5

1.93

Under 6.5

1.83

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Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 83 - 84 Liberty

We’re expecting this to be a close contest and we’ll take the Liberty to win 84-83. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Have Liberty as Favorites

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have New York Liberty as 1.40 favorites for this WNBA game, implying that they are 71% likely to win. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get 2.98 about Phoenix Mercury.

The spread currently stands at 6 and the total points line is 171. There are many ways to wager on basketball including the Totals. If you want to bet Under 171, there are odds of 1.91.

Women's hoops bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Mercury

2.98

Liberty

1.40

Point Spread

Mercury +6

1.91

Liberty -6

1.91

Total Points

Under 171

1.91

Over 171

1.91

Breanna Stewart Favorite to Get Most Points

The favorite to hit the most buckets is Breanna Stewart. Odds of 1.97 can be found for her scoring Over 19.5 points and there is 1.80 for her to go Under.

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 19.5

1.97

Under 19.5

1.80

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 17.5

1.89

Under 17.5

1.87

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 15.5

1.94

Under 15.5

1.82

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 13.5

1.98

Under 13.5

1.79

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 12.5

1.82

Under 12.5

1.94

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 12.5

1.98

Under 12.5

1.79

Leonie Fiebich (Liberty)

Over 9.5

2.10

Under 9.5

1.70

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 8.5

1.74

Under 8.5

2.05

Natasha Cloud (Liberty)

Over 8.5

1.81

Under 8.5

1.96

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

2.00

Under 9.5

1.77

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 5.5

2.00

Under 5.5

1.77

Natasha Cloud (Liberty)

Over 5.5

2.10

Under 5.5

1.70

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 3.5

1.88

Under 3.5

1.88

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

2.04

Under 2.5

1.74

Jonquel Jones (Liberty)

Over 8.5

1.82

Under 8.5

1.94

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 7.5

1.94

Under 7.5

1.82

Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

Over 6.5

1.93

Under 6.5

1.83

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

2.10

Under 6.5

1.70

Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)

Over 4.5

2.15

Under 4.5

1.67

Leonie Fiebich (Liberty)

Over 4.5

2.07

Under 4.5

1.72

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

2.22

Under 3.5

1.63

Natasha Cloud (Liberty)

Over 3.5

2.09

Under 3.5

1.71

Micro Betting

An increasing number of basketball bettors are now enjoying micro betting and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

New York Liberty Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 170.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 161.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 171.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 171.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 87.60 pts and allowed 82.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 80.80 pts and allowed 81.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 168.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 163.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 171.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 171.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.30 pts and allowed 83.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 87.30 pts and allowed 75.70 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	30	7	3209	2834	375	18-1	12-6	2W
2  Aces	26	14	3308	3263	45	14-5	12-9	12W
3  Dream	24	14	3154	2930	224	12-6	12-8	1L
4  Mercury	23	14	3077	2963	114	12-6	11-8	2W
5  Liberty	23	15	3253	3097	156	15-5	8-10	1W
6  Fever	20	18	3242	3137	105	11-9	9-9	1W
7  Valkyries	19	18	2898	2872	26	10-7	9-11	1W
8  Storm	20	19	3207	3128	79	8-10	12-9	1L
9  Sparks	17	19	3108	3190	-82	7-11	10-8	1L
10  Mystics	16	22	2991	3076	-85	10-10	6-12	4L
11  Sun	10	28	2906	3248	-342	6-12	4-16	1W
12  Sky	9	28	2809	3191	-382	5-15	4-13	2L
13  Wings	9	30	3191	3424	-233	5-16	4-14	6L