My Take 5 (Edition 28): The week that was in international affairs

Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of the top international news. Stories have been moving at an extremely fast pace. Iran carried out a massive missile attack against Israel, Ukraine is getting a surge in military aid from the US, China again pledges reunification of Taiwan, Japan has a new leader, and Morocco scores another win.So let’s get to it:
Iran’s missile strikes on Israel: Iran launched a massive missile barrage against Israel in what it said was retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and an IRGC commander. Almost 200 missiles were fired, including for the very first time the hypersonic Fattah missile, a significant number of which actually evaded Israeli air defence and hit their targets. Although no major casualties were reported in Israel, military airbases and civilian infrastructure seem to have taken damage.
The barrage came on the heels of Israel launching its ground invasion of Lebanon for the stated goal of dismantling Hezbollah. But here’s a twist: The Lebanese government now has revealed that Hezbollah and Israel had both agreed to a US-France proposed ceasefire before Nasrallah was assassinated by Tel Aviv in a massive airstrike. If that is the case, this would have weighed on Iran’s decision to launch the strike against Israel. After all, Tehran had showed restraint when Hamas’s Haniyeh was killed by a bomb in Tehran. It could no longer be seen to be standing idle as Israel took out its regional proxies one by one.
That said, neither Iran nor Israel – let alone the US and the larger international community – wants things to escalate out of control. Like in April when Iran had launched another barrage of missiles at Israel, this time too Tehran had telegraphed the assault well in advance – messages had been passed on to the Americans through the Iranian embassy in Switzerland. True, Israel has said it will make Iran pay for the latest assault. But the US certainly doesn’t want things to get hairy. Thus, the Israeli response is likely to be measured. Plus, Tel Aviv is now focused on its Lebanon operation. Hezbollah is no Hamas. It has far greater firepower and has been preparing for an Israeli invasion. The last time Israeli forces went into Lebanon in 2006, Tel Aviv didn’t fare well. Even if Nasrallah has been eliminated, Hezbollah’s fighting arm remains formidable. And unlike Hamas, the Shia group isn’t without a state.
But here’s a question for the US: Can it really be an honest broker for peace if on the one hand it tries to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah, and on the other hand praises the elimination of the Hezbollah chief? After all, Hezbollah is a parliamentary bloc in Lebanon. At worst, the whole episode shows how little influence Washington has today over Benjamin Netanyahu.
Ukraine gets a boost: In a major boost for Ukraine’s military, the US announced fresh military support to the tune of $8 billion that will include the long-range bomb called the Joint Standoff Weapon. These long-range weapons are precisely what Ukraine needs to turn the tide of the war. But Kyiv’s Western partners have been very slow to deliver them. Plus, the US has placed restrictions on the use of such long-range weapons, denying Ukrainian forces the ability to hit Russian military targets deep inside Russia. But Moscow, free of such restraints, has been using those Russian military assets and bases to strike Ukrainian cities, civilian infrastructure and Ukraine’s energy systems. As a result, with numbers and quantity against them, Ukrainian forces have had to make tactical retreats as seen recently in the frontline town of Vuhledar. Difficult circumstances also confront Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Given this situation, Ukraine needs two things – joint air defence with neighbouring European countries, and faster delivery of weapons. If these two conditions are fulfilled, Ukraine will be in a sufficient position of strength and there can be meaningful peace negotiations to end the war. The world must realise that allowing Russia’s slow creep is not creating conducive conditions for talks. Standing with Ukraine has to translate to acting for Ukraine.
Xi again pledges reunification: Chinese President Xi Jinping again pledged reunification with Taiwan on the eve of the 75 th anniversary of the establishment of People’s Republic of China. Making Taiwan rejoin ‘mainland China’ has become Xi’s pet theme. This, despite the fact that the Chinese Communist Party has never set foot on Taiwan. Plus, Taiwan today has a thriving democracy and the Taiwanese people, especially the youth, want nothing to do with Beijing. In fact, current Taiwanese President William Lai is ridiculously marked out by Beijing as a ‘separatist’.
True, China hasn’t ruled out the use of force to subjugate Taiwan. But a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan looks unlikely at the moment. First, Taiwan is undertaking much-needed reforms of its military. Second, the US is increasingly transferring weapons platforms and military-technical know-how to the island nation. And third, regional countries have started preparing contingencies for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Plus, China has seen how badly Russia has got bogged down in Ukraine. It will certainly think a hundred times before launching a direct attack against Taiwan.
However, China is keeping its power dry for a very different reason. And this also concerns India. It is my assessment that China is keeping the option open of a limited attack on either Taiwan or India in 2027, the time of the next Chinese Communist Party Congress. If Xi is still in full control then and everything is going according to his plan, he will do nothing. But if there is an internal communist party move to remove him, or if China’s economy worsens, he will try to deflect and whip up support for his leadership through nationalist sentiments by attacking either Taiwan or India in a limited way. With tens of thousands of Indian and Chinese troops still facing off against each other in the higher Himalayas, another border skirmish is possible. Xi will see – if he needs to – whether he needs such a border skirmish with India or a limited move against Taiwan to assure his re-election in 2027. Both New Delhi and Taipei need to prepare accordingly.
Ishiba becomes new Japanese PM: Shigeru Ishiba became Japan’s new PM at a delicate time for the nation. Ishiba won the ruling LDP’s internal leadership polls in what was seen as a faction-less election. Ishiba is an interesting figure. He has previously clashed with LDP brass on policy matters and is known to take views opposite to that of the party. For instance, he favours allowing same-sex marriage and reforming Japan’s marital naming law that compels married couples to share a surname – something that is limiting for Japanese women.
Similarly, one of Ishiba’s more radical views is his support for an Asian Nato. He has said that the fate that Ukraine faces today could be faced by Asia tomorrow without a collective security arrangement. He is clearly alluding to the threat from an increasingly assertive China. An Asian Nato that guarantees mutual defence will serve Japan well given that its Constitution puts limits on its own military. Plus, there are enough number of Asian nations that are worried about the Chinese threat.
However, China still remains the largest trading partner – and increasingly largest investor – for many East Asian nations. Therefore, the view about China is also graded. Nonetheless, under Xi Jinping, China has become unpredictable and is not averse to using nationalistic sentiments to whip up support for the communist regime. It’s a slippery slope that can lead to miscalculations, especially over Taiwan. Therefore, if not an Asian Nato, a form of mutual defence arrangement in Asia will become increasingly important. An expanded Quad-plus anyone?
Rabat's hand strengthens: Denmark became the latest European nation to recognise Morocco’s Autonomy Plan vis-à-vis the Moroccan Sahara issue. It will be recalled that the Moroccan Sahara issue is a leftover subject from Africa’s de-colonisation process. This part of the Sahara was a Spanish exclave till 1975. But the region had historical ties to Morocco and the famous Green March had seen Moroccans peacefully reunite the region. But Algeria, due to its geopolitical rivalry with Morocco, has continued to support the Polisario Front separatist group and its Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. The latter is neither recognised by the UN nor the Arab League.
In short, Algeria uses the Polisario to try and strategically contain Morocco. But this strategy has been failing. In 2020, the US recognised Morocco’s Autonomy Plan – meaningful autonomy for the Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty – and practically recognised Rabat’s position. Subsequently, the US and a host of countries have opened their consulates in Moroccan Sahara cities like Dakhla and Layoune. This US support for the Moroccan position was reiterated this week when Washington re-emphasised that the Moroccan Autonomy plan was “serious, credible and realistic”. And earlier this year, even France, an important player in Francophone Africa, recognised Morocco’s Autonomy plan as the only feasible solution to the Sahara issue.
It's pertinent to note here that Algeria is backed by Russia and Morocco has military relations with the US. With the current geopolitical confrontation between Washington and Moscow, Rabat’s strengthening hand has considerable strategic implications in Africa and beyond.