COP: Count US Out, Up Your Climate Game

COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from Nov 11 to 22, has opened under ominous circumstances. The re-election of Trump as US president looms over the event, reviving memories of his first term when he withdrew from the Paris Agreement, halted climate funding, and significantly slowed international climate progress. During those years, US largely stood on the sidelines, often obstructing negotiations through proxies. Aside from partial progress at COP24 in Katowice in 2018 – where the “rulebook” for implementing the Paris Agreement was advanced – Trump’s presidency was largely a setback for climate action. Now, as global leaders gather in Baku, they face the possibility of similar inaction and obstruction from US. The pressing question, therefore, is whether the world can afford another four years of inaction. If not, what strategies should countries pursue to advance international climate goals independently of US? Falling shortRecent data from international agencies reveal that despite record-breaking investments in clean energy, the world remains off track to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In 2023, nearly $2tn was invested in clean energy projects. Yet, current policies and investments are leading the world toward a dangerous trajectory, with global temperatures likely to increase by more than 3°C. This shortfall is largely due to the inadequate emission reduction efforts by G20 countries, which collectively account for roughly 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. A UN Environment Programme assessment shows that several major economies – including US, Canada, Japan, Australia, China and Saudi Arabia – are not on course to meet their 2030 emission-reduction pledges or NDCs. While countries like India are projected to meet their NDCs, their overall emissions are expected to increase as they expand energy use to support basic development needs. Against this backdrop, COP29 must tackle three interlinked priorities: scaling up climate finance, establishing effective carbon market rules, and setting the next phase of NDCs for 2035 and beyond. Climate financeCOP29 is tasked with setting a new climate finance target, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal, to support vulnerable and developing countries in combating climate change. NCQG is intended to replace the previous target established in 2009 when developed nations committed to providing $100bn annually by 2020. However, independent assessments reveal that this $100bn goal was only reached in 2022 and much of the funding was in the form of loans, which has exacerbated debt burdens in many developing countries. A recent UN evaluation estimates that developing countries now require around $500bn annually, with some other projections suggesting that over $1tn is needed each year. At COP29, developed countries must agree on the scope of the NCQG in a way that meets the needs of developing nations. Yet, with Trump’s US unlikely to contribute significantly, the question remains: What will other developed countries offer? Will Baku see only a symbolic financial pledge, or will it result in substantial funding to spur global climate action? Carbon tradingIn recent years, carbon markets have been a focal point in negotiations due to their mixed impact. On the one hand, they have potential to generate funding for climate mitigation; on the other, issues like fraudulent accounting and greenwashing have undermined their credibility. These concerns stalled agreement on carbon market rules in the past few COPs, but Baku is expected to finalise and operationalise these rules to restore trust. Setting new targetsWhile many countries are not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, new targets for 2035 are required by early 2025. COP29 is likely the last major opportunity to clarify expectations for post-2030 climate targets. These goals, however, are intertwined with outcomes on climate finance and carbon markets. An ambitious NCQG would allow developing countries to commit to higher targets, while a robust and transparent carbon market could empower developed countries to set more ambitious targets through emissions offsetting. While COP29 in Baku is an important milestone, the odds of achieving an ambitious outcome appear slim – Azerbaijan is a significant oil and gas producer. The key question facing the world now is how to drive global climate action without relying heavily on US. I believe that over-reliance on US leadership has been the main reason for the shortcomings of global climate progress. Since 1992, when the first global climate agreement was signed, US emissions have only reduced by 3%. Further, US has not been a major contributor to climate finance, often falling short on its commitments. Trump’s re-election should, therefore, be a stark wake-up call, highlighting the need for a more diverse, multipolar approach to climate leadership. Countries and blocs like China, India, EU, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil are well-positioned to champion climate action within their respective regions, fostering a more resilient and collective approach. The writer is an environmentalist