NC-Cong may have won but will BJP have the last laugh in J&K?

Faltering with his syllables in Kashmiri, when Omar Abdullah took off his cap and called it a ‘toop’ instead of ‘toopy’e’, many Kashmiris, including his political adversaries, made fun of him. But as the results came in, it was clear that the symbolism of his act — of putting his honour in people’s hands — had certainly paid off.Abdullah has won not one, but both, seats he chose to contest from. He is all set to become the next J&K chief minister, defeating a powerful chakravyuh BJP had laid out for him.The BJP’s mathematicians, it could be said, had foreseen a roadmap through which independent candidates nurtured — or, at least encouraged tacitly — by the party would cut into National Conference’s (NC) votes. Coupled with its seats from the Jammu region, BJP hoped to then steer itself into a majority. But that strategy has failed.Between the time when campaigning began for the first phase and when it ended, there was a palpable difference in how these independent candidates were perceived by Kashmiris at large. The way hordes of young men followed Baramulla constituency Lok Sabha MP Sheikh Abdul Rashid a.k.a. Engineer Rashid’s sons while they campaigned in South Kashmir perhaps reminded one of the most tumultuous periods in Kashmir in 2015-16 when similar mobs would run devotedly after a bunch of foreign terrorists. But, within days, Kashmiris saw through it.It also helped that in its campaign, NC and others repeatedly pointed out how BJP wanted the Kashmiri vote to divide to the national party’s advantage. In the past, NC has been in alliance with BJP. However, voters in Kashmir chose to remember the more recent alliances, particularly the one between Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and BJP, which has proved to be disastrous for the former. medium nocaption114074820The Gandhi factorWhile it will take some time to recover from this low, BJP needs to get up quickly and devise its future strategy. A significant part of this strategy would be to turn Kashmir into Rahul Gandhi’s albatross.In NC’s victory — or BJP’s defeat — Gandhi’s own persona has played an important role. Currently, he is the most popular leader among Kashmiri Muslims, especially the young. Feeling betrayed recently by others and having forgotten old, pre-militancy betrayals, many Kashmiris see hope in the Congress politician. Gandhi has, in his speeches, promised that when Congress comes to power, he will give Kashmiris ‘back their honour’ in the form of Article 370’s special status. And this is where Congress’ problems will, in all likelihood, begin.NC will be happy to do an ‘Arvind Kejriwal’ by telling people that it wants to bring Article 370 back, but that New Delhi is not allowing it to do so. After all, NC is only concerned about Kashmir, a luxury that Congress does not have as a nationwide party.What Congress says, or is seen as demanding in Kashmir, will have national repercussions. Gandhi may mean well when he promises things to Kashmiris. But he will surely know that no matter what happens, no national party in India can now bring back what BJP took away in 2019. So, for Rahul Gandhi, the chakravyuh has just started.What will add a layer to this dangerous maze is the prevailing situation in Jammu region, where Islamist terrorists have managed to make a re-entry and create a fear among the majority Hindu community. BJP has cleverly managed to fuse the idea of fighting terrorism with the removal of Article 370. medium nocaption114074844So, this will also be a challenge for new CM Abdullah. If he is seen faltering with terrorism — as he was heard with ‘toopy’e’ — BJP will place enough advertisements in newspapers about how ‘Congress-plus’ is going soft on jihadis.NC’s adversaries — and that does not only mean BJP — will also be keeping a close watch on any misstep the new government might make. In 2009, after he became CM, Abdullah handled the alleged Shopian rape case badly. He lost control over the situation, plunging the Valley into a deep crisis. The complexity of Kashmir will ensure that challenging instances like Shopian keep occurring. If something like that is handled badly, it will reflect badly on Abdullah. But it will hit Gandhi with double force. So, he, too, will have to keep a watch.But between Article 370 and the absence of it, there is a large field where the new government, despite its curtailed powers, can make a huge difference. There is an entire generation of Kashmiris brought up on hate and violence. Slowly, gardens of trust can be built. It is possible without the rhetoric of Article 370. If that happens, the albatross could very well turn into a garland.The writer is author of "Our Moon Has Blood Clots: A Memoir of a Lost Home in Kashmir"