Did the threat of ‘first Hindu CM’ help NC-Congress win J&K?

10-YEAR ITCHA decade is a long time in the rest of India, but not in Jammu & Kashmir. Back in 2014, National Conference’s (NC) Valley rival People’s Democratic Party (PDP) allied with BJP to form a government.That alliance cleared the way for Farooq and Omar Abdullah’s party to become the most effective vehicle for the Valley’s grievances, especially when Modi-led BJP abrogated Articles 370 and 35(A), and turned J&K to a Union territory. PDP spoke up, too. But the Abdullah’s carried more credibility for Kashmiris. When 2024 elections happened, Omar’s loud demands for status quo ante in J&K convinced many voters he was the man to fight in their corner. That he had once been an ally of Vajpayee-led BJP didn’t matter — in part because for the Muslim-dominant Valley, Modi-led BJP is seen as a different party altogether.MEHBOOBA MINUS MUFTISPDP didn’t just get hit by popular Valley memory of that 2014 alliance with Modi-led BJP. It was also contesting its first election minus Mufti Mohammad Sayeed — he died in 2016 — the face and the driving force of PDP. Mufti’s daughter and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti had failed to manage the party, which saw several key senior members exit. That and the desertion by JEI, traditional backers of PDP, cost the party dear. Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti’s high-profile campaign clearly impressed national media much more than it did Valley voters. medium nocaption114070915ENGINE MISFIREOmar was humiliated by Engineer Rashid in the Lok Sabha elections in the Baramulla seat. But that was when Engineer was behind bars. Being jailed gave him the kind of street cred that disappeared when he was released on bail to campaign for assembly polls. That loss of ‘martyr’ status helped spread a loud whisper campaign that Engineer was a BJP dummy tasked with dividing Muslim votes in Kashmir, so that BJP could install a Hindu CM in J&K. NC told this story again and again during campaigning, till it almost acquired the aura of truth. Also, fighting one Lok Sabha seat as a jailed ‘hero’ is one thing, fighting many seats in assembly elections as a free man, quite another. Engineer’s Awami Ittehad Party didn’t have the organisation to cash in on what support he had. With AIP hobbled, Omar’s NC only had to contend with a weak PDP.A GURU & A GUJJAROmar, front and centre in NC’s campaign, had key help from two colleagues — MP and Shia cleric Syed Aga Ruhullah Mehdi and Gujjar face Mian Altaf. Between them, they commanded enough influence to act as force multipliers in the Valley. And their popular appeal allowed Omar to concentrate on pockets where he was needed the most.ABDULLAH, ABDULLAH AND ABDULLAHThree generations of Abdullahs, Sheikh, Farooq and Omar, built and nurtured NC’s organisation. The party’s enduring voter connect is also thanks to targeted patronage. NC has a presence in almost every corner of Kashmir and in large parts of Jammu. So, whenever voters favour NC, it has the cadre and grassroots party structures to take maximum advantage of it. That its Valley rivals were underwhelming magnified the impact even more. 114070969VETS FOR VOTESThe eternal conundrum for party functionaries in Indian elections is whether to give tickets to seasoned old timers or usher in freshers. When an election happens after a decade, this dilemma becomes sharper. NC took the call to go with battle-tested candidates, each with brand recognition of his own and a loyal contingent of supporters, who remember the good times when NC was in power last. Results show that the strategy worked.CONGRESS NOT KING BUT STILL USEFULOmar publicly griped about Congress’ lacklustre campaigning in Jammu, even lamenting that Rahul Gandhi should have campaigned more in the Hindu-dominated pockets of the region. His logic that this gave BJP an easier run in Jammu seems to have been borne out. But the alliance with Congress helped NC in another, important way — it convinced Valley voters that NC won’t tie up with BJP post-poll. Any suspicion on that count could have cost NC in Kashmir.THE ONE BAIL THAT BJP-LED CENTRE DIDN’T CHALLENGEWhile central agencies routinely opposed bail for almost every jailed opposition politician, in Engineer Rashid’s case, his bail order was not challenged. The official explanation was that since AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal was given bail before the Lok Sabha elections, a precedent had been set. Whatever the reason, the decision not to challenge bail cost BJP strategically and helped NC-Congress form government comfortably.THE HINDU VOTEBJP’s strong showing in Jammu came in the face of Hindu voters’ disaffection — typical everywhere after 10 years of incumbency — with the administration’s development record as well as the waning appeal of Article 370 abrogation. That the party still did as well as it did in the region was thanks mainly to Hindus deciding that, all said and done, BJP remains the best bet to voice their concerns. It was a small but nationally resonant demonstration of the political reality that when Hindu voters feel collectively apprehensive, they ride over material concerns and plump for BJP.BUT NOT A HINDU CMBJP’s strategic plan was to pick up support from small Valley outfits and cobble together a government — with help from Lieutenant Governor’s five nominated MLAs. BJP’s promise of quotas for Paharis was also linked to this plan. But NC’s sweep of the Valley put paid to that strategy.THE HINDU VOTE, THE OTHER SIDEBJP was helped by Congress’ failure to overcome its lack of appeal to Hindus, when the latter vote along community lines. Once a natural choice for Jammu voters, the party couldn’t match up to BJP’s rhetoric. This has bigger implications, especially if Congress’s alliance partner, NC, ratchets up its restore Article 370 demand. BJP can potentially exploit this outside J&K.PLAYING SECOND FIDDLEUnderwhelming as its overall performance was, Congress made a smart choice in faithfully playing the junior partner to NC. That allowed Omar the kind of space he needed to maximise returns in Kashmir — and Congress’s reward was its national level archrival BJP not being able to form the government despite the latter’s strong showing in Jammu region.