Study validates opinion trading: Why is it a game of skill

A study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi has made a significant academic contribution to the understanding of opinion trading platforms in India. Opinion trading, popularly known in the sports ecosystem as sports trading, allows users to take data-backed positions, especially around sporting events. The study concludes that opinion trading requires a high degree of analytical thinking, information processing, and behavioural adaptation.

Conducted over several months, the IIT Delhi research analysed thousands of real-money prediction events across different platforms. The study highlights three key characteristics that distinguish opinion trading as game of skill:

1.⁠ ⁠Information Asymmetry Management: The study observes that participants rely on publicly available data to take positions. Whether it is team performance history, player fitness, or weather conditions, users interpret real-time information to update their forecasts. 

2.⁠ ⁠Dynamic Price Discovery: Much like financial markets, opinion trading platforms operate on live pricing models. The study found that prices for such markets shift within minutes of significant developments. This real-time responsiveness suggests users are actively analysing information.

3.⁠ ⁠Cognitive Learning Curve: One of the more compelling insights is that experienced users performed better than newcomers. This pattern of performance improvement over time is a legal benchmark for identifying a game of skill. It demonstrates that success is linked to practice, understanding, and cognitive effort.

This study is published at a time when digital platforms in India are rapidly evolving. Opinion trading, while still new, is becoming a popular form of participative content engagement. But with popularity comes scrutiny. By empirically evaluating the nature of user engagement, this research helps policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the public make more informed judgments about its place in the digital economy.

What sets this study apart is its socio-economic framing. It goes beyond academic classification and explores the implications of opinion trading on digital inclusion and financial literacy. Additionally, a significant proportion of user activity takes place in Hindi and other regional languages, signalling deep grassroots penetration.

This behavioural shift from passive digital consumption to active information-based participation could be vital in shaping India’s broader digital journey. As users engage with platforms that reward prediction accuracy, they also build habits of news tracking, data interpretation, and probabilistic reasoning.

An emerging skill-tech sector:

The study frames opinion trading as a contributor to India’s growing ‘Skill-Tech’ sector, a space where technology enables the development and application of user skills. This framing is important because it positions these platforms not merely as entertainment products but as digital tools that can foster real-world competencies.

In fact, majority of surveyed users reported that their engagement with opinion trading platforms helped them learn something new each week. This includes understanding statistics, following policy developments, and interpreting news with a critical lens. In an era where misinformation and disengagement plague public discourse, this form of gamified learning has the potential to build more informed citizens.

A call for nuanced regulation:

Although the IIT study does not provide legal advice, it underscores the need for a differentiated approach to regulation. Lumping all real-money digital activities under one broad umbrella risks curbing innovation in domains that are rooted in transparency, skill, and user education.

The findings suggest that a one-size-fits-all regulatory framework may not do justice to the complexity and potential of skill-based digital platforms. Instead, a tiered approach that recognises the role of information, analysis, and learning could help the sector evolve responsibly.

The IIT Delhi study offers a timely and data-backed perspective on the evolving digital ecosystem in India. By identifying opinion trading as a skill-based activity, it challenges prevailing assumptions and invites a more nuanced public discourse.

As India aspires to build a digital economy that is inclusive, informed, and globally competitive, recognising the unique nature of emerging platforms like opinion trading becomes not just an academic question, but a policy imperative. If supported with thoughtful regulation, opinion trading could play a vital role in shaping the future of India’s Skill-Tech landscape where participation is powered not by chance, but by knowledge, analysis, and informed judgement.