The long runway to decarbonized aviation

Aviation contributes approximately 2.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. At first glance, that may not seem significant enough to demand our attention, especially when compared to sectors like manufacturing, energy generation, agriculture, or industrial processing, which are far larger contributors. 

However, let’s take a closer look. Aviation is one of the most challenging industries to decarbonize since aircraft rely on very energy-dense fuels, and current alternatives like batteries and hydrogen come with barriers concerning weight, range, and scalability. In fact, this requires us to innovate new aircraft designs (for electric propulsion) or new bio/chemical formulae (for sustainable aviation fuels). 

Moreover, air travel demand is foreseen to increase massively over the next few decades due to increased global connectivity and affordability, especially in high-growth regions. If left unaddressed, aviation could be a major obstacle in achieving net zero emissions. 

But aviation also happens to have immense potential in as-yet-unseized opportunities. Beyond commercial travel, it is picking up in its relevance for healthcare, humanitarian aid, and cargo deliveries. The use of drones and small aircraft to deliver medical supplies, vaccines, and organs to under-served places is inching us toward an equitable world.

Despite these opportunities, the highly regulated nature of aviation can make it difficult to adopt new technologies. The emphasis on safety means that testing and certification are necessarily long processes, slowing down the pace and extent of change. The sector also operates on very thin margins, so any new solutions must be able to demonstrate clear value propositions. Technologies must all – enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and align with environmental objectives to gain widespread acceptance.

Let’s do a deeper dive into each of these factors. 

1. The Industry is Technologically Difficult to Decarbonize

To understand the complexities of decarbonizing aviation, we need to take a brief look at how propulsion technology has evolved over time. Starting with the piston engines of the Wright brothers’ era, the industry advanced through rotary, radial, turbojet, and turbofan. These engines rely on chemical energy converting it into mechanical energy by burning fuel and exhausting it at high speed thus creating forward thrust (Newton’s third law at work).

Electric engines, on the other hand, are fundamentally different. They convert chemical energy stored in batteries into the mechanical motion of rotors. Thus, it is not a “plug-and-play” solution; entire propulsion systems, aircraft designs, and safety protocols must be reimagined. The shift to electric propulsion will require decades of design, integration, testing, and regulatory certification before it becomes viable.

Another option is to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which can serve as a “drop-in” replacement for traditional jet fuel. SAF, derived from sources like plants, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions without requiring drastic changes to existing propulsion systems or airframe designs. However, there are significant challenges to scaling its production sustainably—more on that in a future article.

2. Future Demand and Emissions Are on a Collision Course

If the aviation sector continues to operate business-as-usual, emissions are projected to more than double by 2050 as demand for air travel grows. This is due to rising global wealth, increased urbanization, and greater accessibility to air travel in developing regions. While innovations like SAF, hydrogen, and electric propulsion hold promise, they won’t eliminate all emissions. Even with a reduced reliance on fossil fuels, there will still be a surplus of emissions which some estimates say could be ranging from 0.25 to 1 gigaton of CO₂ that will likely require expensive carbon removal techniques. Could societal changes alter demand? The metaverse and remote work tools might reduce the need for business travel, while future pandemics or geopolitical shifts could slow tourism growth. However, these trends are uncertain and unpredictable.

One thing is clear: counting on reduced air travel is not a sound strategy. Instead, the focus should be on developing scalable and carbon-neutral technologies to meet demand while achieving environmental goals. Decarbonizing aviation would also democratize access to air travel, turning it from a luxury into an egalitarian service, enabling people and goods to move in ways that don’t discriminate.

3. Societal Applications are Expanding and We Are Just Scratching the Surface

The conversation around decarbonizing aviation often focuses on passenger travel and cargo transport, but the industry is rapidly expanding into critical societal applications. Drones can be used for:

• Emergency Healthcare Deliveries: To deliver vaccines, medical supplies, and even organs to remote or underserved areas.
• Disaster Management: To combat forest fires, map flood damage, and assess areas impacted by earthquakes—all without risking human lives.
• Agriculture: For pesticide spraying, soil analysis, and crop monitoring.
• Infrastructure Inspection: To inspect and map critical infrastructure like bridges, pipelines, and power lines.

These applications are just scratching the surface of the industry’s potential. As the technology evolves, we’ll likely see a surge in aviation’s usage for societal purposes. Decarbonizing these systems is crucial to ensuring their scalability without worsening the environmental impact.

4. Regulation is Slow but Necessary

Aviation is one of the most heavily regulated industries and for good reason: lives are at stake. Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles are designed to operate in urban environments, requiring the creation of rules for low-altitude airspace, vertiports, and urban air traffic management. These designs incorporate innovations such as distributed propulsion, lightweight materials, and autonomous systems requiring an evolving regulatory framework for standard setting and compliance. Agencies like the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) play a critical role in ensuring passenger safety. However, diverse rulemaking will question whether companies can scale operations internationally. Even then, this process will involve a collaborative and iterative approach as it involves regulating a technology that is being rapidly innovated. 

5. New Technologies Must Offer Clear Value-Add for Mass Adoption

Let’s imagine stepping into a flying taxi:

Would you be willing to drive to a vertiport, go through security checks, and take a short flight only to need another taxi at your destination? Many people might question whether this offers enough convenience to outweigh the hassles.

Public skepticism is a hurdle for new aviation technologies. Concepts like flying taxis and urban air mobility must prove their value—not just in terms of emissions reductions, but also in affordability, safety, and convenience.

For innovators, the challenge is to design solutions that aren’t just environmentally friendly but also marketable and user-friendly. This might mean leveraging modern technologies like automation and redundancy in design to build trust in these systems. However, achieving widespread acceptance will likely take years of real-world operation and refinement. Many will believe it once they see it.

In summary, decarbonizing aviation is not a straightforward process. Unlike some other industries, there is no linear path or quick fix for achieving net-zero emissions. The propulsion technologies, regulatory landscape, and market dynamics are deeply intertwined, requiring long-term investment, collaboration, and patience.

But the effort is worth it. Aviation is poised to play a greater role in connecting the world, from democratizing air travel to expanding into vital societal applications like disaster response and healthcare. As emissions grow and the industry evolves, the time to act is now.

Decarbonizing the industry has a long runway ahead. It’s time for companies to get on the tarmac and figure it out.